［ 2017年03月01日 ］
RIKEN International Symposium on Data Assimilation 2017
"A consistent view on the terrestrial carbon cycle through simultaneous assimilation of multiple data streams into a model of the terrestrial carbon cycle"
CO2 is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas contributing to about half of the total anthropogenic change in the Earth's radiation budget. About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions stay in the atmosphere, the remainder is taken up by land and oceans. In the context of climate change it is of paramount importance to understand CO2 sources and sinks and their spatio temporal distribution. This information is needed to improve the projections of future trends in carbon sinks and sources, and thus the potential magnitude of climate change. The simultaneous use of multiple observational constraints has the potential to reduce the uncertainty in the terrestrial carbon sink and to quantify feedbacks with the rest of the climate system. We report on studies that assimilate multiple observational data streams into a global model of the terrestrial carbon cycle to optimise internal process parameters based on the adjoint of the modelling system. The simultaneous assimilation of the data allows to derive net and gross carbon fluxes including uncertainty ranges consistent with the observational uncertainties. We analyse remaining inconsistencies and suggest potential model improvements.
|名前:Marko Scholze||所属:Lund University|